{"id":17803,"date":"2026-04-09T12:32:14","date_gmt":"2026-04-09T05:32:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lctech.vn\/?p=17803"},"modified":"2026-04-09T12:32:14","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T05:32:14","slug":"global-energy-crisis-when-middle-east-geopolitics-hits-the-button-on-oil-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lctech.vn\/zh\/global-energy-crisis-when-middle-east-geopolitics-hits-the-button-on-oil-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"GLOBAL ENERGY CRISIS: WHEN MIDDLE EAST GEOPOLITICS &#8220;HITS THE BUTTON&#8221; ON OIL PRICES"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px;\">It is no coincidence that the Middle East remains the world&#8217;s geopolitical &#8220;hotspot.&#8221; This region holds nearly 50% of global oil reserves and 40% of global gas reserves. Any tremor from the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia, Iran, or Iraq immediately ripples into a seismic event on world energy markets. This article analyzes the mechanisms, impacts, and lessons from energy crises rooted in Middle Eastern geopolitical instability.<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_76 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">M\u1ee5c l\u1ee5c b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseprofile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/lctech.vn\/zh\/global-energy-crisis-when-middle-east-geopolitics-hits-the-button-on-oil-prices\/#1_Transmission_Mechanism_From_Geopolitical_Conflict_to_Energy_Price_Shock\" >1. Transmission Mechanism: From Geopolitical Conflict to Energy Price Shock<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/lctech.vn\/zh\/global-energy-crisis-when-middle-east-geopolitics-hits-the-button-on-oil-prices\/#2_Global_Consequences_Inflation_Recession_and_Power_Shifts\" >2. Global Consequences: Inflation, Recession, and Power Shifts<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/lctech.vn\/zh\/global-energy-crisis-when-middle-east-geopolitics-hits-the-button-on-oil-prices\/#3_Policy_Responses_and_Lessons_Learned\" >3. Policy Responses and Lessons Learned<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/lctech.vn\/zh\/global-energy-crisis-when-middle-east-geopolitics-hits-the-button-on-oil-prices\/#4_The_Future_Will_Energy_Crises_Caused_by_Middle_East_Geopolitics_Recur\" >4. The Future: Will Energy Crises Caused by Middle East Geopolitics Recur?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/lctech.vn\/zh\/global-energy-crisis-when-middle-east-geopolitics-hits-the-button-on-oil-prices\/#Conclusion\" >Conclusion<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"1_Transmission_Mechanism_From_Geopolitical_Conflict_to_Energy_Price_Shock\"><\/span><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px;\"><b>1. Transmission Mechanism: From Geopolitical Conflict to Energy Price Shock<\/b><\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px;\"><b>1.1. Strategic Chokepoint \u2013 The Strait of Hormuz<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px;\">The Strait of Hormuz (between Oman and Iran) is the lifeline transporting about 20% of globally consumed crude oil daily. When Iran threatens to close this strait (often during sanctions or military confrontations), oil supplies from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq are blocked, sending prices soaring within hours.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px;\"><b>1.2. Sanctions and Counter-Sanctions<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px;\">Western embargoes on oil exports from Iran or Venezuela typically remove 1\u20131.5 million barrels per day from the market. Conversely, OPEC+ (led by Saudi Arabia and Russia) can cut production in retaliation, creating a &#8220;deliberate supply shock&#8221; \u2013 typical of 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px;\"><b>1.3. Direct Military Conflic<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">t<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px;\">The Gulf War (1990\u20131991), the Iraq War (2003), or more recently, the Hamas-Israel conflict (2023) and attacks on oil tankers in the Red Sea have all caused geopolitical risk premiums to spike, driving oil prices higher regardless of actual supply-demand fundamentals.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"2_Global_Consequences_Inflation_Recession_and_Power_Shifts\"><\/span><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px;\"><b>2. Global Consequences: Inflation, Recession, and Power Shifts<\/b><\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px;\"><b>2.1. Imported Inflation and Cost of Living Pressure<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px;\">Net importing countries (Europe, India, Japan, China, Vietnam) bear a double burden: rising import bills + higher costs for transport, fertilizers, plastics, and chemicals. The result is a sharp rise in CPI, with the poor hit hardest.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px;\"><b>2.2. Economic Recession from &#8220;Negative Supply Shock&#8221;<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px;\">According to the IMF, each 10% sustained rise in oil prices over 12 months reduces global GDP by 0.1\u20130.2%. The crises of 1973 (Arab oil embargo) and 1979 (Iranian Revolution) caused &#8220;stagflation&#8221; \u2013 simultaneous recession and inflation \u2013 in the US and Europe.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px;\"><b>2.3. Supply Chain Restructuring and Changing Energy Flows<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px;\">Europe was forced to turn away from Russian oil and gas after 2022, instead increasing LNG imports from the US and Qatar, and seeking Middle Eastern oil via routes bypassing the Suez Canal. This increases logistics costs and transit times.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"3_Policy_Responses_and_Lessons_Learned\"><\/span><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px;\"><b>3. Policy Responses and Lessons Learned<\/b><\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px;\"><b>3.1. Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR)<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px;\">India currently has crude oil stocks sufficient for 25 days and refined fuels for a similar period. Contingency plans \u2013 including the use of strategic oil reserves, commercial inventories, and diversifying supplies from the US, Russia, West Africa, and Latin America \u2013 will ensure continuous supply even if a crisis is prolonged. The country&#8217;s total commercial crude oil inventory, including strategic reserves at Mangalore, Padur, and Visakhapatnam, stands at approximately 100 million barrels. Together with refined product stocks, this is a significant buffer against short-term disruptions.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px;\"><b>3.2. Diversification of Supply and Renewable Energy<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px;\">The EU and the UK are accelerating investment in offshore wind, green hydrogen, and solar power. China is promoting electric vehicles and battery storage. The clear lesson: The more dependent an economy is on the Middle East, the more vulnerable it is to &#8220;political will shocks.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px;\"><b>3.3. Energy Diplomacy Instead of Confrontation<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px;\">Major powers increasingly focus on dialogue through OPEC+, the G20, and bilateral agreements (e.g., China\u2013Saudi Arabia settlements in yuan instead of USD) to stabilize markets. However, these agreements are easily broken when military conflict erupts.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"4_The_Future_Will_Energy_Crises_Caused_by_Middle_East_Geopolitics_Recur\"><\/span><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px;\"><b>4. The Future: Will Energy Crises Caused by Middle East Geopolitics Recur?<\/b><\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px;\">Short-term (1\u20133 years): Very likely. With escalating Israel-Iran conflict, instability in Yemen, Libya, and the regional nuclear race, oil prices could hit $120\u2013150 per barrel at any time.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px;\">Medium-term (5\u201310 years): Pressure will ease as renewables and EVs gain a larger share, but the Middle East will remain the swing producer determining oil prices.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px;\">Long-term: If major economies achieve energy independence (US, China, Europe) and reduce oil consumption, the Middle East&#8217;s geopolitical influence will relatively decline. But this transition will not be smooth, and intermediate shocks remain highly dangerous.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Conclusion\"><\/span><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px;\"><b>Conclusion<\/b><\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px;\">Global energy crises originating in the Middle East are not just a story of supply and demand. They are a reminder: The price of gasoline at the station near your home is partly determined by strategic decisions, sanctions, and even gunfire from half a world away. Therefore, any nation seeking long-term energy security must pursue a two-pronged strategy: on one hand, reduce dependence on fossil fuels; on the other, build reserves and sustainable diplomatic relations with the Middle East \u2013 the volcano that provides both energy and instability for humanity.<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It is no coincidence that the Middle East remains the world&#8217;s geopolitical &#8220;hotspot.&#8221; This region holds nearly 50% of global<\/p>","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":17804,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17803","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tin-tuc"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.5 (Yoast SEO v25.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>GLOBAL ENERGY CRISIS: WHEN MIDDLE EAST GEOPOLITICS &quot;HITS THE BUTTON&quot; 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